Methodology

Each plant's support scheme is identified as NDRHI or GGSS from its support class and commissioning year — GGSS where the support class is the GGSS cohort or the plant was commissioned in 2024 or later (NDRHI closed to new entrants in 2021, with its tariff-guarantee commissioning window running to ~2023), otherwise NDRHI. The support end date is then the commissioning year plus the statutory term — NDRHI + 20 years, GGSS + 15 years — read from our scheme registry, and applied through a single shared calculation so every page agrees.

These scheme and cliff dates are inferred from the public record and flagged provisional. We are wiring the Ofgem NDRHI/GGSS per-installation accreditation register to replace the inference with the exact accreditation date and term for each plant.

Where an asset has not yet been matched to an Ofgem register entry, the cliff date is estimated from commissioned year and flagged as provisional. Dates remain provisional until confirmed against the Ofgem register match.

Because the bulk of NDRHI biomethane plants were commissioned 2012–2014, support expiries concentrate in 2032–2034. The subsidy cliff is a forward planning horizon for refinancing, repowering, and acquisition strategy — not a live emergency.

The valuation tab is a high-level, indicative screening valuation — a range, not a precise figure, and not investment advice. The enterprise value (EV) is the sum of discounted unlevered free cash flow (FCFF) over the asset's remaining life: EV = Σ PV(EBITDA − sustaining capex − cash tax). Because per-plant output, margin, leverage and tax shield are not in the public record, we present a range, not a single number — for a plant-specific, leverage- and tax-modelled forecast, InfraValue advisory builds a bespoke model.

The annual revenue stack (real terms, escalated):

• Subsidy — output × the tiered Ofgem biomethane tariff for the plant's scheme (NDRHI or GGSS), paid only until the support cliff (commissioning + 20yr NDRHI / 15yr GGSS), RPI-escalated. Tariff tiers are read from the current new-entrant Ofgem rate table. Tariff-vintage caveat: pre-2015 NDRHI accreditations hold materially higher locked tariffs than that table, so screened EVs for the 2012–15 cliff cohort are conservative (understated) until tariffs are banded by accreditation vintage.
• Gas commodity — output × wholesale NBP gas price (the producer sells the gas on top of the subsidy), plus a green-gas (RGGO) premium. Continues for the whole asset life.
• Gate fees — waste-fed plants are paid to accept feedstock (£/tonne); crop-fed plants earn ~£0 and buy feedstock instead.

EBITDA = revenue × margin; free cash flow then deducts sustaining capex and cash tax (UK 25%, applied after a straight-line capital-allowance/depreciation shield, so early years are largely sheltered). The subsidy cliff shows as the step-down in cash flow when support ends; post-cliff years are merchant gas plus the green-gas (RGGO) premium only — RHI/GGSS and RTFO are mutually exclusive, so a plant can't stack transport-fuel certificates on top, and a conservative buyer further haircuts this merchant tail (~10–25% of subsidised-era value for agricultural feedstock, ~25–45% for waste/gate-fee plants). EV is unlevered — equity value = EV − net debt, and per-plant debt balances aren't public.

InfraValue default assumptions — indicative starting points for the screen, each with its basis below. They are deliberately transparent and conservative; a bespoke advisory model tailors them per plant.

• Output ≈45 GWh/yr (per-plant estimate) — UK fleet mean (n=136: mean 45.8, median 47; ≈130–141 plants inject 6–7.5 TWh/yr, right-skewed). Not in the public record — an estimate, hence the range. Per-plant output is largely modelled: only a minority of plants are matched to a REPD installed-capacity figure; the rest resolve to a feedstock-band value (≈40/47/55 GWh for agricultural/mixed/waste), so the stored per-plant figure is a feedstock lookup, not a metered distribution. It auto-upgrades to metered output when the Ofgem/NNFCC register feed lands.
• EBITDA margin, feedstock-banded — agricultural ≈30%, mixed ≈40%, waste/gate-fee ≈53%. The waste band absorbs the WRAP £24/t gate-fee economics, because per-plant feedstock tonnage isn't public, so the explicit per-tonne gate-fee line stays £0 and is not double-counted. No UK operator publishes plant EBITDA; banded by feedstock and flexed ±10pts in the range.
• Discount rate 9% — JLEN Environmental Assets' AD valuation basis (6–9.4%, real ~6.9%, 2023–24).
• Sustaining capex 5% of revenue · tax 25% · build capex ≈£0.33m/GWh (drives the depreciation tax shield; build capex from UK Parliament written evidence — ≈£15m for a 500 m³/h plant).
• Asset life 25yr · RPI 2.5% · gas escalation 2.0% · RGGO premium 0.3p/kWh — InfraValue assumptions: 25yr is the typical AD/biomethane design life; RPI is the long-run UK inflation anchor; 2.0% a long-run nominal wholesale-gas escalation; the RGGO premium of 0.3p/kWh (£3/MWh) is deliberately conservative against a volatile market that has traded at roughly £7–25/MWh in recent years, with no live feed.
• Range — output ±20%, margin ±10pts, discount ∓1.5pts (the most material, least observable drivers).

Benchmark. The clearest disclosed UK comp — JLEN's Aug-2024 sale of six gas-to-grid plants (≈333 GWh/yr, so ≈55 GWh/plant — larger than the ≈45 GWh fleet mean) to Future Biogas for £68.1m (51%) — grosses to ≈£133.5m for 100%, or ≈ £0.40m per GWh/yr. Read it carefully and treat it as a single comparable (n=1): the sale was “in line with” JLEN's carrying value, so £0.40m is an equity NAV struck at JLEN's ~9% AD discount rate — not arm's-length price discovery, and not an enterprise value, so it is a conservative anchor for an EV. We therefore screen against an indicative £0.30–0.55m per GWh/yr band rather than a single point. The comp is recorded with its source in the valuation Comparables tab.

InfraValue deliberately does not publish composite 0–100 “risk” or “movement” scores against named companies. The acquisition-targets board, deal-intelligence board and owner-group pages show only the underlying public-registerfacts — active deal signals (each with its source and date), registered Companies House charges, insolvency and overdue-filing flags, and subsidy-cliff proximity — and let you sort and filter on those. Where things are ranked, the ordering is on a raw fact (e.g. number of active signals), never a weighted composite. The consolidation map links two owner groups only when a real director or person of significant control sits on both.

Linking records across registers is in places probabilistic. Every method we use, and its known limits:

• Company → asset: exact match on Companies House number held against each plant. Join keys are whitespace-trimmed. A plant with no company number (or a non-company operator, e.g. a council) carries no Companies House data.
• Plant postcodes: where a site postcode was missing, it was derived by reverse-geocoding the plant's mapped coordinates (postcodes.io) to the nearest postcode — i.e. the site location, not the registered office. In sparse rural areas the nearest postcode may be an adjacent unit; low-confidence and unverified results are flagged internally and refined manually.
• Environment Agency permits: matched to a plant by exact site postcode, then by fuzzy operator-name match against the owner group. Coverage is partial where operator names differ from owner names.
• Gazette insolvency notices: found by company-number search of the insolvency edition, then name-matched (trigram similarity ≥ 0.55 against the Companies House or asset name) so a number appearing incidentally in a multi-company notice is not mis-attributed.
• Land Registry sales: only an exact postcode match is recorded against a plant (high-signal, in the provenance layer); all UK price-paid data is otherwise presented as a standalone map layer, not coupled to individual plants.
• Feedstock category: derived from the scheme's fuel classification (product-only → Agricultural, waste-only → Waste, mixed/residues → Mixed).
• Owner groups: grouped by a maintained owner-group label; each plant is typically its own company, so group-level figures aggregate across separate registrations.

Per-plant metered biomethane output is not in the public record (the authoritative source is the Ofgem NDRHI/GGSS accreditation register, which we are working to wire). Every output figure on the platform is therefore an estimate, shown as such, on two bases:

• REPD capacity — where a plant's postcode maps to exactly one name-corroborated project in the Renewable Energy Planning Database (OGL), output ≈ installed capacity (MW) × 8,760 h × 0.85 availability. Low confidence: REPD capacity can be electrical rather than gas.
• Fleet model — otherwise a feedstock-category estimate (waste-fed plants run larger than crop-fed), calibrated so the fleet total matches the published UK figure (~6.5 TWh/yr across ~130 plants).

Output is editable everywhere it drives a valuation, and the whole platform upgrades to metered figures the moment the Ofgem register feed lands.

Every signal on the platform carries a link to its source record and the date it was detected. If a signal has no source link, treat it as unverified.

InfraValue is a screening tool. Public registers contain errors, lags, and gaps; entity-to-asset matching is probabilistic in places. Verify any data point independently against the primary source before relying on it.

Nothing on this platform constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. It identifies where to look — it does not tell you what to do.